Football management research reveals both good and bad trends

Research by Warwick Business School's Dr Sue Bridgewater reveals that over 500 managers for the four top English divisions have been dismissed from their post since 1992, bringing damaging instability to the game. However, she has also outlined how a new professionalism in the post of manager is already achieving results on the pitch and could thus help managers stay in post longer.

Dr Bridgewater looked at the 678 managerial changes in the four football leagues from August 1992 to December 2005. During that period she found 94 were still in post, 48 resigned for personal, advancement or other reasons, but a staggering 536 of those managers were dismissed from their post. These changes of management have involved 360 different managers.

Dr Bridgewater also found that on average this season a manager remained in post for just 1.72 years (down from an average of 2.7 years in 1992/93). However lower league managers have actually lost their posts at more than twice the rate of the Premiership. Last season three times as many managers were parted from their posts in Championship clubs than in the Premiership.

This research dispels the myth that this rapid turnover in managers is simply a giant game of musical chairs with managers simply swapping clubs. In fact almost half (49.1%) of first time appointees go out of the game on losing their first post and are never appointed again.

The research also demonstrated that this enormous turnover in managers is creating an unacceptable level of instability that damages individual team performances. The report found that clubs with the fewest managers over the period studied had an average win percentage of 40.91% compared with 32.68% for those clubs with the most frequent changes of manager.

However the report also demonstrated a significant change in the fortunes of managers brought about by the increasing uptake of relevant professional qualifications by managers and prospective managers. This relatively recent interest in gaining professional management qualifications is already making a real difference to management performance and thus length of tenure in management posts. The researchers found that managers with no qualifications, or only the more limited B license, achieved on average a score of 30.28% wins whereas those with the Pro License averaged 37.09% wins.

Both the Pro License and the Certificate in Football Management run by Warwick Business School are proving increasingly attractive to managers and prospective managers seeking to add managerial insight to their considerable football skills. As Manchester City Manager Stuart Pearce put it on completing the Warwick Business School Certificate in Football Management:
"I appreciate that the most important thing is to get good results, but to me the bottom line is the more education you can give yourself, and the more preparation you can do, the less chance of failing. That's my philosophy."

LMA Chief Executive John Barnwell welcomed the Warwick Business School research. He said

"I am grateful to Warwick Business School for producing the most comprehensive piece of managerial statistical analysis ever undertaken in this field.

"There is clearly a major concern to the League Managers Association that the average tenure of a manager at a football club has fallen dramatically from 2.7 years in 1992-93 to 1.8 years last season.

"With an average of 40 dismissals per season, it means that almost half the clubs in the Premiership and Football League now change their manager every season.

"Stability is invariably the key to success in any industry and football is no different. The LMA believes it is crucial that our members are given every possible opportunity to succeed at their clubs.

"We also feel it is vitally important that our members are prepared as best as they possibly can be when they take up managerial appointments.

"Our association has introduced a package of benefits and qualifications which we believe helps managers to cope with the diverse challenges they face as managers.

"This is beneficial for the whole of football as no-one wants to see a trend continuing where the tenure of managers becomes ever shorter and leads to constant upheaval within our clubs."