Are many careers peaking earlier than we realise? 

When Katalin Karikó won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2023, one aspect of her career dominated the headlines. 

While conducting her award-winning research into mRNA ‘messenger molecules’ – which enabled scientists to rapidly develop effective vaccines against Covid-19 – she was demoted not once but four times. 

She also had her salary cut, putting her at risk of being deported from the US. 

One reason this attracted so much attention is that it contradicted the generally accepted narrative that career progression follows a linear trajectory. 

For many years, we have believed that seniority in terms of age and position go hand in hand. In other words, as individuals gain more experience, they are more likely to be promoted (or, at the very least, to remain at the same level) and enjoy more independence in their roles. 

Yet my research with Professor Andrew Oswald, from the University of Warwick, suggests this is not the case. 

Using four sets of longitudinal survey data from three wealthy countries – the United Kingdom, Australia, and Germany – we analysed the responses of more than 400,000 workers. 

This allowed us to identify which workers felt they were allowed to work independently and track how these feelings of ‘autonomy’ changed over time through their working lives.

At what age does employee autonomy peak?

Our results were surprising. We found that the level of autonomy reported by workers rose during the early part of their career, but peaked around the age of 40. 

It then declined sharply over the next 20–30 years of their working life. By the time they reach their early 60s, many reported little or no autonomy – and, in some cases, less than workers at the beginning of their careers. 

This ‘hill-shaped’ career curve was almost identical across all three rich countries. 

It also remained broadly the same regardless of gender, education, whether workers were full-time or part-time, length of service, and whether or not they had supervisory roles. 

This peak in workplace autonomy at around 40 years old seems perplexingly premature, which poses the question: are people’s perceptions accurate? 

Prior research has shown that older workers prefer jobs with greater autonomy, which allow them to use the judgement they have developed through years of experience. 

Does that mean they set the bar higher when considering how much autonomy they have? And that, as a result, the decline in autonomy is a largely imaginary trend? 

Our findings suggest not. We analysed workers’ job titles and supervisory responsibilities, their salaries, and the flexibility they had on when to start, finish, and take breaks. These are more objective measures of an individual’s autonomy and all revealed a similar hill-shaped pattern. 

In Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the number of people with ‘manager’ in their job title peaked before the age of 40.

Are older employees more likely to be demoted than promoted?

Some who moved out of this category were promoted to more senior positions, such as director. 

However, these promotions were too few and far between to have a significant impact. 

Employees were far more likely to move downwards, rather than up, when the word ‘manager’ was removed from their job title. 

Nearly 40 per cent moved into the ‘professional’ category, more than a fifth became clerical and admin workers, and 14 per cent became technicians or skilled tradespeople. 

Another 10 per cent ended up in blue collar roles, such as labourers, machinery operators, and drivers. 

We also conducted a survey of approximately 400 experienced professionals, most of whom were MBA and Executive Education students at Warwick Business School. 

More than 60 per cent said they knew someone who had been demoted from a supervisory role in an organisation they had worked for, and nearly half said they knew someone who had lost their managerial title. Thirteen said they could name multiple people this had happened to. 

Again, these demotions happened most frequently between the ages of 40–49. 

It appears that demoting or sidelining previously valued employees is a common practice. 

So why does autonomy peak so early for many employees? 

Why do many careers peak so early?

In truth, we do not know. No-one appears to have identified this trend previously and there is a strong case for further research to understand what causes the phenomenon. 

It cannot be adequately explained by workers changing employers and accepting a lower-level role in their new organisation. A relatively small proportion of those who reported having less autonomy had also moved jobs. 

Neither is it because workers with more autonomy are leaving the workforce in larger numbers. 

One thing we can say is that those who enjoy managerial status throughout their careers, and who are promoted again and again, are less likely to experience a loss of autonomy. 

Managers in the charity sector are also more likely to retain higher levels of independence. This may point to a stronger, age-based hierarchy within the sector.

Should managers be concerned that older workers are losing autonomy?

Why does this pattern of dwindling autonomy matter? 

Put simply, humans hate being monitored. The anthropologist Donald E. Brown listed autonomy as one of the most basic human needs in his influential book, Human Universals. 

In the workplace, autonomy is widely regarded as a key source of motivation and job satisfaction. 

This is particularly significant when you consider two other trends. 

The first is the rise of hybrid and remote working. If this continues to spread, self-motivation is likely to become an increasingly important quality for workers. 

Employers should be mindful that lower levels of autonomy could result in experienced workers becoming less driven and less productive. 

The second is the fact that employees in many wealthy countries are retiring later. This means they could spend a larger proportion of their careers working without the autonomy they crave. 

This could result in older employees who feel less loyalty to the organisation and are more inclined to take their skills and experience elsewhere. 

By the time the wider scientific community began to fully appreciate the potential of Karikó’s research, she had long since departed the university that demoted her. 

She took her expertise to BioNTech Pharmaceuticals in Germany, where she eventually became Senior Vice President. 

The company later worked with Pfizer to develop the first mRNA-based vaccine to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Few employees who are demoted or sidelined will go on to enjoy the success achieved by Karikó, but her story should serve as a warning to employers. If companies sideline workers relatively early in their careers – when they have so much more that they could offer – then they risk losing out on a wealth of experience and expertise.

• This article is based on a peer-reviewed journal article: Mujcic, R. and Oswald, A. J. (2025) The growth and collapse of autonomy at work, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 122, No. 27. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.250441912

Further reading:

Two strategies to avoid making yourself replaceable at work

Why organisations should help those experiencing a midlife crisis

What we get wrong about resilience - and the cost to your organisation

Why don't more women reach the boardroom?

Redzo Mujcic is an Associate Professor of Behavioural Science and Programme Director for the Executive Education programme Behavioural Science in Practice. He also teaches Behavioural Sciences for the Manager on the Executive MBA and Global Online MBA, as well as The Economics of Wellbeing on the Global Online MBA.

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