Macroeconomic Policy and Forecasting Research Network

The Macroeconomic Policy and Forecasting (MPF) Research Network produces world-class research in the areas of macroeconomics, econometrics and forecasting. We aim to develop strong network links with academic and policy making institutions, both to enhance our research impact and support research-led teaching and learning of relevance to business and policymakers. 

Our world class research has been supported by various funding bodies (including the ESRC and the ONS). MPF members hold prestigious and influential editorial roles at top econometrics journal, their recent research outputs have been published in journals including the Review of Economic Statistics, the Journal of Econometrics and the Journal of Business and Statistics, and their past research has had a substantial impact in the academic community as evidenced by high citation numbers (Google Scholar and Scopus). Battisti and Galvao are members of the ONS Economic Experts Working Group and Mitchell, Galvao and Petrella collaborate with NIESR on funded research programmes, including the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (£134,000, 2017-2019). 

In addition to this strong impact of MPF research in academia, our research and forecasting practices, in particular the Warwick Business School Forecasting System, have met an enthusiastic audience from professional forecasters in institutions such as the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, with whom we maintain close relations. 

We supervise PhD research in Empirical Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Forecasting. From 2021/22, we will be supervising PhD students who are part of the MRes/PhD in Finance and Economics, which is jointly run in collaboration with the University’s Department of Economics. Current PhD students we supervise are still part of the former MPhil/PhD programme in Finance and Econometrics. We provide students with support to develop their individual research skills and pursue academic and research positions in economic institutions. 

MPF members teach postgraduate students economics and quantitative methods. In economics, our teaching portfolio includes the 'Economics of the Business Environment' modules that are introductory economics modules for MBA students. Currently, we lead versions of this course for the Full-time, Exec and Distance Learning MBA students. Our portfolio also includes optional economics modules such as 'Economics in a Global Environment' and 'Managerial Economics.' In quantitative methods, our teaching includes forecasting courses for generalist management and finance MSc students, in addition to a portfolio of econometrics courses for PhD students. We also deliver monetary policy and macroeconomic courses for MSc Global Central Banking & Financial Regulation and for the PhD in Finance and Econometrics. 

Recent working papers published by our network members have addressed issues such as the impact of judgement on macroeconomic forecasting, how to measure and communicate data uncertainty, how to model macroeconomic downside risk, how to perform structural scenario analysis, how inflation risk is linked to commodity prices, and how to deal with unknown unknowns in density forecasting. 

Head of Network: Professor Ana Galvao.

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