Buoyant: Some US firms have bucked the trend of falling share prices under Trump
The stock markets may have rallied in recent days, but the S&P500 is still down five per cent since Trump’s inauguration.
This does not mean that all companies have declined during that period. On the contrary, some have done well.
To identify how US companies can excel under the current administration, I analysed those who had the best stock price performance between 17th January (the last trading day before inauguration) and 8th May.
Three strategic pathways emerged. First, being efficient at selling essentials always works during turbulent times. That’s true for Kroger and Dollar General, but also Philip Morris.
Second, if you are great in creating the essential plumbing for the digital world - AT&T and VeriSign are good examples - you are set for growth.
Finally, if you play in niches less affected by trade wars or polarisation in general, you can avoid some of the headwinds. Again, AT&T is a good example. So is Netflix.
Better still, these tensions may play in your favour as it does for the government’s security firm of choice Palantir.
Here are the 10 firms whose share prices have risen most since Donald Trump's inauguration at US President.
10 Kroger Co - stock up 23 per cent
Even when consumers are unsure about the future, they continue to buy essential goods like groceries. Instead of buying less, they actually shift their spending from other discretionary items to food.
Meaning the demand even increases. Discount stores tend to benefit most from this.
Although Kroger is a mid-market retailer, it carries 16,000 well-priced items under its own private labels. These products generate 20% of the company’s revenues. In short, turbulent times are not bad for Kroger.
9 AT&T Inc - stock up 23 per cent
Telecoms are relatively isolated from trade wars. While tariffs had an effect on the availability and cost of some telecom equipment, the overall trajectory of the Trump administration is favourable for AT&T.
Reducing the regulatory burden and particularly easing M&A restrictions opens the door to strategic deals.
If the plan to reduce corporate tax materialises, it will improve AT&T’s financial position.
The administration’s desire to invest in infrastructure also aligns with the company’s main strategic play: to expand fibre networks and modernize 5G networks.
8 Howmet Aerospace Inc - stock up 26 per cent
Not all corporate fortunes are tied to the woes of an administration. Howmet Aerospace is able to exploit a leading position in a profitable niche market - aerospace fastening systems and forged aluminium wheels for commercial transportation.
Tariffs on steel and aluminium have not undermined this, as Howmet optimized its supply chain, carefully managed its offerings, and could pass on rising costs by invoking force majeure.
7 Newmont Corp - stock up 27 per cent
Gold has always been a safe haven in times of political turmoil and inflation. So it is no surprise that the mining company holding the world’s largest gold reserves is doing well at the moment.
For the past decade Newmont has consistently produced six million ounces per year, making them a likely benefactor of rising prices.
The company has also increased operational efficiency in recent months, after being punished for higher-than-expected costs reported in October last year.
6 CVS Health Corp - stock up 29 per cent
CVS integrated health model came under fire in late 2024. New bi-partisan legislation introduced in December intends to break the relationship between pharmacies and health insurance. Not surprisingly the share price dropped.
The increase since January is a recognition by the market that CVS has been able to adjust quickly.
Financials in the first quarter were strong while CVS prepares legal challenges, increases lobbying efforts and plans 270 pharmacy closures in 2025.
Considerable headwinds are waiting though, with this administration planning to lower drug prices partly by cutting out pharmacy benefit managers.
5 Netflix Inc - stock up 33 per cent
Lilyhammer, the story of a New York mobster relocating to Norway, was Netflix’s first original. It was Netflix’s answer to a new threat: streaming services set up by Hollywood studios.
Rather than trying to mimic the likes of Disney, it leveraged its international footprint, often partnering with local studios to create unique content that it distributed globally.
This strategy still works, even more so in a more divided world. A new season of Korean hit-show Squid Game and the unexpected success of British produced Adolescence were among the new releases attracting and retaining subscribers.
In addition, expansion into live streaming, interactive shows, and gaming created new income streams.
4 Dollar General Corp - stock up 34 per cent
Discount stores do well when consumers are worried. During Covid, Dollar General’s stock went up by 60 per cent, though it dropped sharply after the pandemic.
Since then, a turnaround has increased efficiency, leveraging the considerable scale the company has. No other retailer can match its local footprint of 20,000 stores. That puts a Dollar General store within five miles of 75 per cent of Americans.
With the economy entering choppy waters, this combination of low prices and convenience sets Dollar General up for further growth.
3 VeriSign Inc - stock up 36 per cent
Warren Buffet likes three things when looking at potential investments: strong fundamentals, a unique competitive edge, and consistency.
Since 2018 VeriSign has consistently reported exceptionally high net profit margins above 45 per cent. Its competitive advantage is the monopoly it holds for .com and .net domain names.
Consumers don’t buy from VeriSign directly, but every time someone buys one of these domains, the company gets paid.
Even better, it can increase prices - last September by it did so by 7 per cent. VeriSign may be a boring company, but by providing vital plumbing for the digital economy, it is also likely to prevail in more turbulent times.
2 Philip Morris International - stock up 41 per cent
Being in the right industry helps. Tobacco products are consumer staples, not usually affected by recessions. But Philip Morris has a strategy that puts it ahead of US competitor Altria, whose stock has risen by a comparatively modest 16 per cent.
Crucially, Philip Morris has diversified more successfully – 42 per cent of its revenues came from smoke-free products during quarter one. Compared to cigarettes this is a growing market.
In addition, the exposure to tariffs is limited. Philip Morris USA and its parent company Altria have been distinct entities since they were separated from Philip Morris International in 2008.
As a result, the latter sells no cigarettes in the US and it supply chains are regional. For example, ZYN nicotine pouches for the US market being produced in the country.
1 Palantir Technology - stock up 66 per cent
Investors are always excited when companies are aligned with major trends. Few are in such a perfect spot as Palantir right now.
It invested early in an AI platform. As CEO Alex Karp writes in the most recent letter to shareholders, at that time, “many were skeptical, if not outright hostile.”
And in an increasingly polarised world where many conflicts are fought online, their government security products are highly in demand.
This isolated the company from the recent downward trends of tech stocks and outweighed concerns about how trade wars might affect the company.
This article was originally published by Forbes.
Further reading:
Why Trump's tariffs will hurt America first
Did Trump's tweets move the currency markets?
Trump wants more trade tariffs - what would that achieve?
Could Elon Musk save the US government a fortune?
Learn to lead your business through turbulent times and transition with the executive education programme Leadership for a Complex World at WBS London at The Shard.
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